Nintendo:
The big N heads into this E3 in an unfamiliar position. After being the undisputed king of the gaming hill (in sales) due to the ridiculous success of the Wii for the past four years, this year sees Nintendo looking up at Microsoft in the lead. While the Wii still holds the overall US sales lead, it has played second fiddle to the 360 in 10 of the last 11 months according to the data released by the NPD group. On the upside for the house that Mario built, they are ostensibly the only manufacturer announcing a new console at this E3. This will generate a lot of buzz for the company, especially with the rumor that the new console will cater toward more traditional gaming experiences.
Prediction #1 - I'm going WAY out on a limb on this one, but stick with me, because who would have thought the Wii would turn out to be what it was before they officially unveiled it? Among all the rumor and speculation that's come about with Nintendo's Project Cafe, the two things that jumped out at me are the new controller and the purported streaming capabilities of the system. What if part of the horsepower for the console was actually contained in the controller instead of the console itself? Because of this, developers could build the game to be played both at home and on the go. If you decide you want to take a game portable, you simply tell the console to stream the game to the controller and off you go. This would give Nintendo a leg up on Sony, as you wouldn't need separate copies of a game nor worry about where your save is. This trumps a feature that Sony seems to be hinting at with its NGP. Throw a little ad-hoc networking and/or 802.11 support in as well, and then two or more people can grab some multiplayer goodness on the go utilizing their characters and save files that they've built up at home.
Why this prediction works - Nintendo needs some eye-catching features to differentiate it's new hotness from everyone else's consoles. Otherwise it's just another system that plays the same games that everyone else's system can, and they're the new kids on the block all over again trying to carve out market share with the traditional gamer. Imagine the hardcore Call of Duty guys that would flock to this system if they could Prestige from anywhere they had a network connection. I think Nintendo would bank at least two to three million in sales from that demographic alone. In addition, if you put any stock in inferences that the code name makes as far as the system's feature set, it's not a stretch to imagine a Nintendo demo video of two incredibly happy people gaming against each other in a coffee house with their systems.
Why this prediction is bonkers - Nintendo would essentially be cannibalizing it's own 3DS market if it did so. Why carry a 3DS and your Project Cafe controller around with you at the same time? You've only got so much pocket/purse space, and between these two behemoths it's just like Highlander... there can be only one. Not only that, but to have the power of their console in the controllers would make it a pretty expensive deal to add controllers to the system. Nintendo could hardly justify $100+ price tags to consumers for its controllers.
Prediction #2 - Nintendo announces the official name and price of the new system. The new name will not be "Wii 2" which I'll get to in prediction 3, and the price will be $349.99 with at least a 160GB proprietary storage medium. There will be only one SKU.
Why this prediction works - This price point gives them an advantage over the current Microsoft and Sony consoles as both companies' consoles with significant storage space are currently priced at $299. They get the ability to say they have the latest and greatest tech for only $50 more. Once their competitors do enter the next gen market, they will likely come in at an equal or higher price than this, and at that point it's likely that Nintendo would be in position for a price cut to pressure their competition and maintain their advantage of being first to market in the next generation.
Why this prediction is bonkers - Given the tech that has been projected to be in this system, there's no possible way that this system can hit this price point without Nintendo taking a significant loss. This is something they've not historically done with their hardware, and I doubt they're likely to start now.
Prediction #3 - Project Cafe and the Wii will coexist. Nintendo will announce that they're still the company for everyone and they will continue to support the Wii.
Why this prediction works - Nintendo made ridiculous money bringing the casual gamer into the market. The casual gamer will be very unlikely to make the jump to a more traditional console, and Nintendo will still want to bleed this market dry. They stand only to gain because they can entice the hardcore market back to them while simultaneously serving the interests of the casual market. The biggest win for Nintendo is that it's nothing that Microsoft or Sony can replicate with the cheapest console between the two of them still at $199, and still intimidatingly hardcore. They'll keep the Wii around as long as it continues to make them money, and then they can release the "Wii 2" in much the same way they did the Wii. Give it enough to make it a viable cheap gaming console, but without all the expensive bells and whistles that the hardcore crowd looks for.
Why this prediction is bonkers - Nintendo has never historically supported three platforms at once. Sure, Nintendo famously made the three pillar statement way back when, but they never truly backed it. The Gameboy platform was put out to pasture once the DS was assured of success.
Sony:
Sony is the most curious of the three companies heading into this year's E3. They were set to be the runaway "winner" of this year's show in my eyes until April 20th rolled along. 77 million compromised PSN accounts, nearly a month of network down time, and a crippled online store which has yet to return later, and this year's E3 picture changes greatly for Sony. But not all is lost for Sony. They still have some great exclusives showing up this year, in Infamous 2, Uncharted 3, and Resistance 3. They've also got their new handheld to brag on as well. Let's see what we can expect from Sony.
Prediction #1 - The NGP is officially named, dated, and priced. The NGP will be unveiled officially as the Playstation Portable 2, (or PSP 2) will be in stores in time for Christmas this year, and will be priced at $299.
Why this prediction works - For as long as Sony has been in the gaming hardware business, the moniker has always contained PlayStation. Despite the somewhat negative general opinion of the current PSP, I doubt this is enough to get Sony to consider dropping the Playstation nameplate from the system. The system has to be priced at no more than $299 to have a shot at any type of foothold in the market. Any higher, and it will merely gather dust on the shelf as gamers can pick up a 3DS for $100 cheaper, or go buy a home console and just game there. Any lower, and they take too much of a loss for the cost of the hardware contained in the device.
Why this prediction is bonkers - To get this system out for the holiday is a pretty quick turnaround for only having announced it in January. It's more likely to see a summer release around next year's E3, or even Fall of 2012 to give them time to bring up production numbers as well as procure content to sell on the system. To sell this system at $299 is still certainly a loss for Sony, and more than even it will want to stomach.
Prediction #2 - PS3 gets a $50 price cut.
Why this prediction works - With the Wii dropping to a pretty ridiculous $149, Sony's entry console is now double the price of its competitor. Whether or not the consoles are equals really isn't up for debate here, it's the mindshare of little Johnny's mom that walks into Walmart and sees she can buy him video games for half the price. Sony can't and won't ignore this, and will get the PS3 down to a $249 entry point. Further, languishing in third place behind the fading Wii and the still strong 360, Sony needs something to give consumers an extra incentive to buy its console in the wake of the PSN data breach.
Why this prediction is bonkers - Sony finally began making some money with the PS3 hardware last year. With a reported $170 million in costs due to the PSN debacle, it's unlikely they'll want to give up any ability to profit on their hardware if it can soften the blow of this debt.
Prediction #3 - This is the only one that will get an "It depends" type of prediction. If the Playstation Store is back up next week as expected, Sony won't breathe a word of the PSN data breach and subsequent outage in its press conference. If it's still down, I guarantee an apology will be forthcoming.
Why this prediction works - Sony has been tight lipped about everything related to this whole situation. If they don't have to remind everyone of a giant failure during a time that is to be a celebration of their company, they won't. However, if developers still can't sell and gamers still can't buy from the store that will at that point have been down six weeks, they won't be able to ignore the elephant in the room.
Why this prediction is bonkers - Sony will have to say something about their "Welcome Back" program in order to try to get some sort of PR spin on a giant black eye in its gaming history. Regardless of the conditions laid out above they'll take the opportunity to pat themselves on the back, and to remind their customers how generous they are.
Microsoft:
Microsoft is the current king of the consoles. As noted above, they've led the NPD charts in sales in 10 of the last 11 months of reporting. The only problem for Microsoft right now is that they've sort of spent all their ammo. Everyone knows Gears 3 and Forza 4 are coming, the rest of the exclusive well is otherwise dry, and the Kinect is already out and the honeymoon is over.
Prediction #1 - No bombshells coming from Microsoft this year. They will certainly make some sort of announcement that was previously unknown, but it will be of the type that you'll say to yourself "Well anyone could have seen that coming at some point."
Why this prediction works - Microsoft lost Bungie, lost the Mass Effect exclusive, and have shuttered Ensemble Studios, one of the few studios it still owned. With the exception of Rare, the remainder of its high profile exclusive studios already have announced their works. With no new hardware expected either, it's really unlikely that Microsoft will have anything to give us that "Wow" moment during their presser.
Why this prediction is bonkers - With Nintendo and Sony both showcasing new hardware of some sort this year, Microsoft can't be left with nothing. There's got to be something up their sleeve to try to take some of the spotlight from the other two manufacturers.
Prediction #2 - Microsoft will once again get timed exclusive rights to Call of Duty DLC.
Why this prediction works - Activision will be blowing the lid off of Modern Warfare 3 at the show, maybe even at Microsoft's own press conference. As they've had the drop on Sony for two years running, expect Microsoft to exploit one of the few things it can point to as a previously unknown exclusive.
Why this prediction is bonkers - Activision wouldn't want to do anything to possibly dampen excitement for its flagship console title with over five months still to go before release. If and when (more likely when) Microsoft procures these rights, it will be announced much closer to release.
Prediction #3 - Microsoft will continue to pimp the daylights out of Kinect and will announce several new very casual friendly titles, date others that have been previously announced, and maybe toss a bone or two to the hardcore.
Why this prediction works - Microsoft likes money. The more they can try to win over the Wii crowd, the more money they make, and they can't afford to have Kinect die so shortly after its release. They've certainly poured some resources into developers making Kinect games to give any incentive at all for people to buy it. With a lack of software released, and very few receiving critical success, Microsoft has to pump some life into its motion project.
Why this prediction is bonkers - Microsoft isn't aiming the Kinect at the hardcore and it appears to already be fizzling even among the casual despite having shipped 8 million units. Microsoft can't control what third party developers create, and doesn't have the studios of it's own to try to build the library by itself. Kinect will have a small presence in the E3 press conference, but it will showcase only casual games and nothing more.
Lots of predictions. Some I'm reasonably confident in, and others, well, I'm certainly stretching. I honestly believe all are at least plausible. Get out your scorecards and lets see how I did in two weeks!
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